Peramalan Data Indeks Harga Konsumen Berbasis Time Series Multivariate Menggunakan Deep Learning

  • Soffa Zahara Universitas Islam Majapahit
  • Sugianto Universitas Islam Majapahit
Keywords: consumer price index, time series forecasting, deep learning.

Abstract

Multivariate Time Series based forecasting is a type of forecasting that has more than one criterion changes from time to time that it can forecast based on historical patterns of data sequences. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) issued regularly every month by the Statistics Indonesia calculated based on data observations. This study is a development of previous research that only used on type of algorithm to predict CPI value resulting poor of accuracy due to lack of architecture variations testing. This study developed a CPI forecasting model with a new approach about using several types of deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, and Multilayer Perceptron with architectural variations of the number of neurons and epochs. Furthermore, this study adapt ADDIE model of Research and Development method. Based on the results, the best accuracy is obtained from the LSTM Bidirectional with 10 neurons and 2000 epoch resulting 3,519 of RMSE value. Meanwhile, based on the average RMSE value for the whole test, LSTM gets the smallest average of RMSE followed Bidirectional LSTM and Multilayer Perceptron with the RMSE value 4,334, 5,630, 6,304 respectively.

 

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Published
2021-02-13
How to Cite
Zahara, S., & Sugianto. (2021). Peramalan Data Indeks Harga Konsumen Berbasis Time Series Multivariate Menggunakan Deep Learning. Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem Dan Teknologi Informasi), 5(1), 24 - 30. https://doi.org/10.29207/resti.v5i1.2562
Section
Artikel Teknologi Informasi