Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen Menggunakan Metode Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Berbasis Cloud Computing

Abstract

Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is known as optimized Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architectures that overcome RNN’s lact about maintaining long period of memories. As part of machine learning networks, LSTM also notable as the right choice for time-series prediction. Currently, machine learning is a burning issue in economic world, abundant studies such predicting macroeconomic and microeconomics indicators are emerge. Inflation rate has been used for decision making for central banks also private sector. In Indonesia, CPI (Consumer Price Index) is one of best practice inflation indicators besides Wholesale Price Index and The Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since CPI data could be used as a direction for next inflation move, we conducted CPI prediction model using LSTM method. The network model input consists of 28 variables of staple price in Surabaya and the output is CPI value, also the entire development of prediction model are done in Amazon Web Service (AWS) Cloud. In the interest of accuracy improvement, we used several optimization algorithm i.e. Stochastic Gradient Descent (sgd), Root Mean Square Propagation (RMSProp), Adaptive Gradient(AdaGrad), Adaptive moment (Adam), Adadelta, Nesterov Adam (Nadam) and Adamax. The results indicate that Nadam has 4,008 RMSE’s value, less than other algorithm which indicate the most accurate optimization algorithm to predict CPI value.